Will my MOT fail? Free AI-powered prediction for any UK car
Enter your registration. We pull your full DVSA MOT history, your make and model's published failure rate, your mileage trend and your last advisories, then return a 0-100 failure probability — plus the three most likely fail causes for your specific car.
How it works
1. We fetch the DVSA record
Your full MOT test history (since 2005), plus mileage readings and advisories, straight from the official DVSA MOT history API.
2. We score every signal
Brand failure rate, age bucket, last outcome, mileage trend, time since last test — each signal adds (or subtracts) points. The breakdown is shown in full on the result page.
3. You get a 0-100 score
Plus the three most likely failure causes for your make and model, with a quick buyer-side tip on each. Borderline or worse? Book a pre-MOT inspection.
What we use to predict
The score is rules-based and fully transparent — every input is sourced from a public dataset or your vehicle's own DVSA record. No invented numbers.
- Make & model base rate
Brand-average MOT failure rate from our /mot-failure-rate data, anchored to DVSA statistics.
- Vehicle age bucket
Older cars fail more. We bucket age into five bands and weight accordingly.
- Last MOT outcome
Whether your last test passed or failed, and how many advisories were raised.
- Annual mileage
Derived from your odometer history. High-mileage cars fail more often.
- Mileage anomalies
An apparent rollback in the odometer record adds risk and is flagged separately.
- Time since last MOT
If your MOT is due soon (9-13 months since the last test) the score reflects upcoming-test risk.
Frequently asked questions
Will my MOT fail? How can I tell before the test?
Enter your registration above. MOT Checkup pulls the DVSA MOT history for your car, your make and model's published failure rate, your annual mileage, the time since your last test and what came up on your last MOT advisories. We combine those into a 0-100 failure-probability score and list the three most likely fail causes for your specific vehicle.
How accurate is the MOT failure prediction?
The score is indicative, not a guarantee. It's based on documented DVSA patterns: older fleets fail more, high-mileage cars fail more, cars whose last test had advisories or a failure are more likely to fail next time. It cannot see hidden corrosion or a fault that has only just developed. Treat it as an early-warning signal — if the score is borderline or higher, book a pre-MOT inspection.
What inputs go into the score?
Brand base failure rate (from our /mot-failure-rate data), vehicle age bucket, last MOT outcome (pass vs fail, advisories present), implied annual mileage from your odometer history, mileage anomalies if any, and months since your last MOT. Each signal's contribution is shown on the result page — no black box, every input is auditable.
Is the prediction tool free?
Yes — the failure-probability score, the contributing factors and the top 3 likely causes are all free with no signup. Vehicle specs, tax/VED, ULEZ status, insurance group, recall lookup and running-cost estimates are free too. The optional paid report starts at £2.99 (Basic), which unlocks the full per-test MOT detail and mileage history plus a branded PDF. Premium (£3.99) adds the AI vehicle Q&A chat on top of everything in Basic. Finance, write-off and keeper-history checks are not currently included at any tier.
My car is under 3 years old — why doesn't it work?
Cars first registered in the UK don't need an MOT until they're 3 years old, so there's no DVSA MOT history to analyse. We will show an 'insufficient data' message instead of inventing a score. Come back after the first MOT is on record.
Does the tool use AI?
The headline score is a transparent rules-based calculation — no LLM is involved in the number. AI is only used elsewhere in the MOT Checkup report (e.g. translating advisory text into plain English). The prediction itself is fully reproducible from the inputs shown.